Global Potential Shared Car Users
As of 2004 the number of potential users is 245 million.
By 2026 that number will increase to about 600 million.
These numbers are developed using spreadsheets that factor in urban population, wealth by quintile, GDP, urban population growth rates and economic growth rates.
Income Distribution , In Percentages
Sheet 1 or IncDist1 shows income distribution, in percentages, for 36 countries. Income distribution is important because, when combined with GDP, the percentage of population above a minimum income can be roughly calculated. These countries are the 36 largest in terms of urban populations. The percentage of GDP is given by quintiles and deciles. The population is divided into 5 quintiles. The fifth quintile, Q5, or richest 20% of China’s population earn 46.6 % of all GDP. The top decile, or top 10%, earn 30.4 % of all income. These percentages are used in the next sheet to calculate $ income by quintile.
Income Distribution in Dollars
Sheet 2 or IncDist2 shows income distribution in dollars. The top quintile in China earns $10,718 per person. I get this from multiplying a GDP of $4600 per cap by 46.6%/20%. This is enough to rent a shared car for a few hours per week. In the US the bottom 20% earn $9063. From other sources I have learned that the poorest 20% in the US spends about 36% of income on transportation. This is about $3200 a year and is consistent with the cost of driving a used economy car. It is reasonable to predict that China guy would spend at least 10% of a $10,000 income on transportation. This would be $1000. Perhaps he would spend $500 a year on bus or train and $500 a year on shared car use. This would be $50 a week. At $5 an hour, he could rent a SC for 2 hours per week. The percent who can afford shared car use, in each country, is shown in the far right column. Some countries lack sufficient information such as GDP or income distribution.
Potential Users by Country
Sheet 3 or User Calculation shows potential users by country. Summing up potential users from 36 countries we get 172 million. This calculation starts on the left with the percent who can afford car share, as given on the previous sheet. This percentage is multiplied by the urban population in millions. For example China’s 20% is multiplied by an urban pop of 382 million to get 76.4 million. This is then corrected for age. Some are too young to drive. Of course if a person is under 18 they probably don’t earn much and hence wouldn’t be in the top 20% of all Chinese incomes. So this is conservative. This leaves 57.3 million potential urban car share users. Column H shows the number of cars per 1000 population. China has only 3.2 cars per 1000 people and so we can predict that there are only 1.2 million cars in urban areas. Subtracting 1.2 cars from 57.3 million potential car share users yields 56 million who don’t have a car yet can afford to rent one occasionally.
This calculation produces an odd result for USA, Russia and others. There are several reasons that the USA does not fit in with Europe and Asia. These include : ineffective public transit in most cities and low population density in most urban areas. These reasons combine to force the American working poor to spend far more than they should on cars. The bottom 20% of Americans spends a whopping 36% of income on transportation. Despite a predicted -15 million car share users, 25,000 American’s use car share. This indicates that these calculations are on the low side. A more detailed analysis of the US, on a city by city basis, would probably indicate several million in the potential car share user population.
Another way to estimate potential users in the US is to count college students and mass transit riders. From the United States Statistical Abstract (USSA1) I find that there are 15.87 million college students. Students are potential users because they rarely have parking on campus and instead must arrive by bike, bus or on foot. They also have low incomes. They do not need a car every day, but would find one useful for a few hours per week.
Mass transit riders are potential users because they either don’t own a car or don’t get much use out of one they do own. Mass transit riders who are low income could use a shared car for a few shopping trips per week. Middle and high income mass transit riders could use a shared car as station car and as the family’s secondary car. They could use a SRC as a station car to get to the train station in the morning.
USSA indicates that mass transit vehicles carried 9653 million passengers in 2003 (USSA2). I divide this number by 1000 to estimate the number of people, 9.6 million, who use mass transit on a daily basis. Riders average 4 or less boardings per day and work 250 days per year. They make 2 boardings per morning trip if they transfer from bus to bus or bus to train. Multiply 4 daily boardings times 250 days to get 1000 boardings per riders per year.
Adding college students to bus riders I get : 15.8 + 9.6 = 25.4 million. Allowing for overlap in the two groups, that is that some college students are also bus riders, I estimate potential users at closer to 20 million.
In Column I the estimated number of cars in urban areas, for the top 36 countries, is given as 425 million. About half of these (212 million) are in European and Asian cities. Since many of Europe’s 250,000 car share users gave up a car when they started to use car share, it is not unreasonable to predict that a large fraction of these 212 million urban car drivers will also give up their cars.
The potential car share user pool could be more like :
172 non car drivers in Europe and Asia
+ 53 ( 212 car drivers/4 = 53, in Europe and Asia)
+ 20 college students and mass transit riders in USA
------
= 245 million.
BY 2026
By 2026 the potential car share user population will increase to about 600 million.
In China the urban population will increase from 400 million in 1998 to 756 million by 2026. The year 2026 is the projected end of life for all SRC patents owned by MLP. As the Chinese urban population grows their incomes will also be growing by at least 6% a year. This combination will boost the potential CS user population , in China alone, from 56 million in 1998 to 318 million in 2026. About 80 % of all urban population will make more than $8000 a year and hence be able to afford to use car share. Only the top quintile, making an average of $54,000 a year, will make enough to possibly afford a personal car. Assuming the entire fifth quintile owns cars, and quintiles 2 through 4 use car share, we get 60% of the urban population. Only about 70% of those would be old enough to drive.
India will see similar growth in potential CS users. Urban population will grow from 256 million in 1998 to 565 million by 2026. And incomes will rise also. A chart below shows income by quintile in 4 year increments. Potential CS users will increase from 18 million in 1998 to 158 million by 2026.
The top quintiles, 4 and 5, for both India and China will have risen to levels that would allow them to afford a car in the US. But few in these top quintiles will buy cars in Asia. Asia will have taken a different path 20 years from now. As discussed in the background section, Asian cities will have implemented many traffic and pollution mitigation measures. Measures such as congestion charging, toll roads and restricted parking will preclude all but the very wealthy urban dwellers from owning cars. Apartment buildings, office parks, and shopping centers built in this time frame will have sufficient parking for Car Share but not for private car parking.
Summing up global potential car share population by 2026 :
| Country | Millions |
| China | 318 |
| India | 158 |
| Japan | 20 |
| United States | 20 |
| United Kingdom | 12 |
| Germany | 12 |
| Korea | 10 |
| France | 9 |
| Brazil | 9 |
| Canada | 5 |
| Italy | 4 |
| Spain | 4 |
| Netherlands | 4 |
| Misc | 11 |
| TOTAL | 596 |
Sources :
GDP
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gro_nat_inc_cap
Income Distribution
http://www.worldbank.org/poverty/data/2_8wdi2002.pdf
Urban Population
http://www.un.org/esa/population/pubsarchive/ura/fura.htm
Cars per1000
http://humandevelopment.bu.edu/dev_indicators/show_info.cfm?index_id=80&data_typ=1
USSA1 : , see tables 280 and 282
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/03statab/educ.pdf
USSA2 : see table 1180,
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/03statab/trans.pdf